Crypto braces for Trump’s tariff announcement: what to expect
Markets are on edge as they anticipate increased volatility ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s upcoming tariff announcement, with analysts from Bitfinex suggesting that the final details could spark either a relief rally or a market correction across both crypto and equity sectors.
Uncertainty surrounding the tariff plan
Trump is scheduled to unveil his “Liberation Day” tariff plan at 4 p.m. ET, an event that could significantly impact trade relationships with key partners such as China, Mexico, and Canada.
- While the full details remain undisclosed, some reports indicate that proposed tariffs could include a 25% levy on imports, along with additional duties on lumber, copper, and microchips.
- This lack of clarity has left markets in a state of uncertainty, as investors attempt to price in potential risks ahead of the announcement.
Possible market reactions
According to Bitfinex analysts, if Trump’s tariff plan aligns with current expectations—meaning 12–20% tariffs targeting select countries—markets could respond positively in the short term.
- This could lead to a rally in risk assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and equities, particularly if retaliatory measures from affected nations are delayed or limited.
- The anticipated reaction follows the common “buy the rumor, sell the news” market behavior observed during high-profile macroeconomic events.
However, if the proposed tariffs exceed expectations by being broadly applied or accompanied by strong rhetoric, analysts warn that the market could experience a renewed sell-off.
- Bitcoin, which has already declined significantly from its highs, may face further downside pressure due to its strong correlation with macroeconomic trends and equity performance.
- If risk-off sentiment takes hold, the equity markets could also see extended losses, dragging Bitcoin lower.
Key market signals to monitor
Following Trump’s announcement, analysts recommend keeping a close watch on several key indicators that could signal market direction.
- Bitcoin’s trading range: BTC’s price fluctuations between $78,000 and $88,000 will be critical in determining market sentiment.
- Spot ETF flows: Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs could reflect institutional investor confidence in the face of policy uncertainty.
- Equity performance: The behavior of tech and consumer stocks will provide insights into broader market risk appetite.
- Altcoin performance: If risk aversion spikes, altcoins may underperform, potentially increasing Bitcoin dominance.
Short-term volatility expected
Bitfinex analysts stress that today’s announcement is among the most significant catalysts of Q2, meaning heightened volatility is likely to persist for the next 24–48 hours.